CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z
Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-07T04:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -80403.37 hour(s)
Difference: -10.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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